tough to do, but I’m told the pros ‘sell into strength, and buy into weakness’. Retraining your brain to act counter intuitively is sometimes hard. So, I am temporarily out of almost all long (and short) positions. We are so close to the upper descending trendline and 200 day moving average on all indexes that there is little statistical edge to hanging on to the positions at this stage, the risk is just too great for the reward.
So, sit on the sidelines until the market tells us the next move. We can either break through this trendline OR have a revisit to the downside. My assumption is that we will take a fall to get a ‘higher low’, then we will rise from there. So, bullish sentiment, but we need to take a break for a bit first.
We have risen over 13% in roughly 6 days from the bottom … that kind of move is not sustainable obviously … so a break is in order.
With that said, there have been so many on the sidelines up until this point and probably more worried about ‘missing the next move up’ than losing their shirts … so we might have a few more days of strength before we loss a little, or we might just have sideways movement for a few days before resuming the uptrend.
Sit on your hands and wait to let the market show its’ hand … patience is the hardest thing sometimes.