mixed signals today. I was hoping for a nice follow through day today which we didnt get as the market were mostly flat to slightly down. Having some time to consolidate the gains is normal, but there are still many troubling signs on the table that have yet to be resolved.
My gut says that yesterday’s energy was mostly from shorts getting stopped out and not actual heavy buying and a follow through will disprove that. If shorts got stopped out … then it makes sense that they today would be cautious to enter, but if the bulls don’t get aggressive, the bears will.
Volume today was one of the lowest of the year, which again implies … people are sitting on the side lines waiting for some direction … including myself. While momentum traders are uber bullish, longer term bears still think they have the edge … and many in the middle are waiting for one side to gain an edge.
We are still at the 50 yard line with no clear direction. In fact, to update you on the post from yesterday related to the center line … we closed literally touching the line today. We opened above it, and came down and bounced aggressively off of it three times during the day, only to close at it. Looking just at today’s action points to a bearish case. In fact … it wouldn’t surprise me if we gap down under the center line and spend the day trying to fight back above it.
My end of day analysis is the quite mixed in its’ numbers … we lost some positive ground from yesterday’s close, but all in all … there are so many conflicting messages that it points to the same … uncertainty.
All in all, the facts have me leaning toward a bearish case (unfortunately), but until the market sends me a clear signal … I will not act on it.
I can tell you this … tomorrow in my opinion is critical for the bulls … as the weekend will give all traders time to look at the charts and see them for what they are … bearish in nature.